When Two Foes Resolve to Become Friends, it is like Shaking up the World!

The “record-long Trump-Putin call”that lasted for two hours is the latest once-in-a-century talk of the world.

In geopolitics, two important things are happening now: First, two sworn foes are becoming friends; and secondly, Europe for the first time is not an actor.

International news organisations are full with reports of Trump-Putin talk, obviously a big event that is out to shake up the world. Following this event is the probable summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. And that summit will finally seal a changed geopolitics scenario.

What happened in the Call?

According to reports, “Putin and Trump agreed to work together on Ukraine resolution".

Russian President Putin agreed to the proposal of US President Donald Trump for Russia and Ukraine to stop hitting each other's energy infrastructure for 30 days, though Putin, as it appears from reports, has not entirely agreed to the 30-days’ unconditional ceasefire. According to reports, Putin raised “significant points” about monitoring truce and how to prevent Ukraine from using the truce to re-arm itself by mobilising arms support. In this, Putin obviously indirectly pointed to European Union which has resolved to stand by Ukraine after Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s spat with Trump, and Trump’s own distancing from Europe.  

"We had a great call," President Trump, as reports suggested, said after the talk.

Senior diplomats of the two foes have met in Saudi Arabia, Putin and Trump have spoken on the phone and now presidential summit will naturally follow and conclude the process. The end of this process will mark the beginning of a new process—foes becoming friends!

Trump is a businessman; Putin is a hardcore ruler. The world is wondering why the two diametrically opposed poles in geopolitics are coming closer and possibly together, as things emerge.

What is the 30-day Ceasefire Plan?

The plan, agreed after talks between senior U.S. and Ukraine officials in Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah—not released in full though, roughly states—

Ukraine has agreed to the 30-day ceasefire deal, provided it is agreed upon by Russia as well. The interim 30-days’ ceasefire can be extended.

While President Trump, a few days back, had maintained that the 30-days’ ceasefire deal was for a complete ceasefire, there were reports that it was for initial ceasefire in sea and air only, and ground fight was to remain open.

The ceasefire will include swapping of prisoners of war, release of civilians detained by each country.

What about the mineral deal?

Trump like a good businessman, does not want his money wasted. His country has aided a huge $175 billion to Ukraine in support for its war against Russia during the last three years. And Trump wants accounting. Mineral deal is the pay off to the United States by Ukraine. And though Ukraine has been asking for “security guarantee” of the U.S. against Russia, Trump sees the mineral deal as an exchange only for the war support already given by his country, and not for any security guarantee (security support) that his country may give or not give in future.

As things stand now, the two countries, the U.S. and Ukraine, have agreed to conclude a comprehensive agreement for developing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources. Trump went furious reportedly after he found that the Ukrainian President had not already signed the agreement when he met him in the Oval Office, which increased the tension between the two.

Ukraine has agreed, Putin is being convinced to agree to the ceasefire plan

The phone call between the two leaders was basically for Trump to convince Putin on the ceasefire and ending of the war. As things suggest, the talk between Trump and Putin was open and frank. The two leaders must have certainly known who wants to gain what, out of the war.

As things stand, Russia wants the U.S. to agree to its keeping of Ukraine territories that it has annexed in the present war as well as Crimea that it has occupied since long.

Putin also wants that Ukraine does not get NATO membership—NATO’s future itself is in dark as things stand now. The NATO has been a trans-Atlantic military cooperation between the U.S. and the European countries, but United States, soon after Trump took over, is shifting its traditional policy. Trump has often said that Europe has to pay for its own security. European Union nations have already held several summits as to how to beef up their own security when the U.S. is changing its policy.

Here, the U.S. under Trump is not just pulling off its alliance with Europe, but also cozing up with Russia—the arch rival and foes of Europe. The biggest worry of Europe is this. Not less than a nightmare, to which Europe has woken up and started to work itself out for a plan. Europe, however, is not willing to let the U.S. free itself from its traditional security policy, for obvious reason. Europe’s effort now is twin: To convince the U.S. to remain with its age-old foreign policy, as well to bolster up its defence by spending more from the budget.   

Who is Gaining, who is Losing from the War?

The biggest gainer obviously is Russia, in terms of strategy, territory and balance of power.

The biggest loser is Europe—Ukraine.

What is the U.S. gaining? Well, it has so far managed to keep up its “world-leader” status by trying to effect an end to the war by negotiating. Also, if the mineral deal happens—which is part of the larger scheme of ending of the war, it will have a sizable benefit.

But what probably the U.S. is looking up is to concentrate on its Trade War—make ‘America Great Again’. This it can do only if it has more focus on manufacturing and trade rather than on providing security to Europe and other NATO nations against Russia. Make your foe your friend, and buy time to empower your economy—for economy is the backbone of any military power. Or China will take over the U.S. on this front.

It is important to remember that the United States is in the hands of two businessmen—Trump and Elon Musk. They want to win the Trade War, not the war against Russia, for Ukraine.

What will the World Look like after the War ends?

It would be a new world. Every war brings up with it a new world. The Second World War did the same, this Russia-Ukraine war will do the same—a New World where Trade is the new War.