What Does the Entry of Iran in War against Israel Mean?

In the past months, Iran had only been issuing warnings to Israel against Israel’s airstrikes on Gaza and Lebanon, which so far have left many dead and lot many injured. But the killings of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, Hamas chief Haniyen in Tehran and IRGC Quds Force operations commander Brig-Gen Abbas Nilforoushan—all of which has been blamed on Israel—not just belittled Iran but also shamed it in the eye of its allies and armed groups it supported.

Iran had to attack Israel as a measure of deterrence because it did not want to look weak any more in the eyes of the world community, and particularly the Islamic world.

Iran launched about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday night, according to news reports. While the Israeli defence system reportedly neutralised them, there have been visuals of damage in Israel territory, including damage in its three airbases and the headquarters of the Mossad spy agency.

The U.S., which had alerted Israel of Iran’s possible missile attack, was quick to come in support of Israel, with U.S. President Joe Biden saying: ‘Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel’; and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ‘Iran made a big mistake and will pay’.

Question is what will be the ‘repay’ by Israel? That Israel will avoid any big attack on Iran is obvious, for this act may escalate the war and Israel will make Iran formally enter in the war. The war would be no longer between Israel and Iran-supported armed groups fighting what they call ‘Zionist expansionism’; but it then would be a war between nations. Iran’s ally Russia, which is fighting the U.S. ally Ukraine, has so far kept quiet. But if Israel’s direct big attack on Iran forces a war of nations with U.S. making open declaration of support to Israel, Russia cannot just remain an onlooker. China too may dislike to sit on the fence.

In all likelihood, then, Israel may be forced to choose small targets. Its choice will be restricted to oil refineries, military bases and the like. But Iran’s Tuesday attack on Israel makes one thing clear: that the war is expanding, albeit slowly. European countries are already divided on it, and may choose to go slow.