Trump 2.0 —Day 1 at White House: Is Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal on Plater?

The Inauguration of Mr Donald Trump as the President of United States of America has been planned huge, but his promise that he will end the Russia-Ukraine war before he enters office or the first thing first day on entering office, appears hazy. His advisors, according to reports, have noted that Rusia-Ukraine peace deal is far from the immediate sight and maybe months away.

According to information coming, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had stated that he would be ever ready to talk to Trump to negotiate and end the war, is not giving any clear message, or rather giving mixed message.

Trump has put retired Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, to head the task of striking a negotiation to end Russia-Ukraine war, and the team reportedly hasn’t made much progress on the task.

Trump’s Election Campaign Promise

Trump, a Republican, at his campaign during the U.S. presidential election had said that he will end the Russia-Ukraine war before he enters the office if he won the election; or on the first day of his office. He even pulled up Ukraine President Zelenskiy saying that he should negotiate peace with Russian President Putin and if required cede some portion of Ukraine to Russia and buy peace. Trump had signalled that he would stop U.S. support to Ukraine, for such support is just draining out resource. He had even called Zelenskiy as the greatest salesman in the world as he walked away with huge fund from the U.S. every time he visited the United States.

Trump differs with Biden on Russia-Ukraine war support

Trump’s difference of approach vis-à-vis the Russia-Ukraine war from President Joe Biden had been believed to be serious and good, by the United States voters. The election result was, apart from many other promises of Trump, an outcome of his promise on Russia-Ukraine war too. Many U.S. citizen’s want solution to Russia-Ukraine war and so do many citizens of nations in European Union.

Leaders of nations in the European Union hold differences of opinion on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. While some nations are for the continued support to Ukraine against Russia, others want to end the support so the resources could be concentrated on other things than war. The war has left the European Union divided.

European Union resolves to support Ukraine against Russian Aggression

Most European nations, however, see Russian aggression on Ukraine as an aggression on Europe, which they don’t like. They see it as a growing imperialistic attitude of Russia, and want to curtail Russia. As Ukraine is being supported by NATO nations, most European nations being part of NATO are bound by agreement to support Ukraine against Russia. Meanwhile, when Trump promised he will end the war on Day One of his office, European nations too hoped the Trump promise to come true.

What maybe the possible negotiation terms?

Trump has made it clear that Ukraine President Zelenskiy should negotiate peace with Putin, and even part with some territory if needed. Thus, Trump may offer some territories of Ukraine and ask Putin to pull off military presence in Ukrainian territories and call off the war.

However, Russian President Putin, according to reports is in no hurry and isn’t giving clear message as yet on ending the war. That the peace deal between Russia-Ukraine isn’t in sight for the Day One of Trump’s Presidency, but efforts are being made to make it possible during 100 days from the day of Trump’s entry into White House.

Important reasons why Trump won the election

Among important points on why Trump won the election against Democratic Kamal Harris though she was ahead in polls initially, include Trump’s promise to address inflation and voters’ frustration over high prices.

Trump’s promise for internal economic reform was perceived by the voters as better than the position of Ms Harris. Support to Ukraine against Russia in the war, takes a lot toll on the internal economy of the U.S. citizens too, and Trump’s promise to end the war was seen as a valid step in addressing the internal economic situation.

The United States’ sanctions on Russia!

Apart from the military side to ending the war, there is the non-military economic side to it too.

Russia has been facing long list of the U.S. sanctions, and President Putin may want all the sanctions to be lifted. Russia’s ally Iran too is on the U.S. sanctions, and this too might be a case of talk while peace is being negotiated. China as a natural ally of Russia and the U.S. at an undeclared trade war with China too would be on the back of the mind when Ukraine peace is being negotiated.

More than 1000 days of War

The war between the two nations—Ukraine being supported by the U.S. and European NATO alliance nations, and Russia covertly being supported by China, North Korea, and Iran—has crossed 1000 days. Many soldiers are tired of fighting away from their families for so long. Entry of North Korea has complicated the war and even South Korea is crying hoarse over the war.

Reports suggest that even Russian citizens’ support to the war is on the wane. So, President Putin might already be sensing it and feeling the need to call it a day.

Continued war and economic sanctions by different nations, has negatively affected the internal economy of Russia. Russia is able to stay on in the war because of its oil trade with China and India—and further U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers is making China and India seek alternative for their refineries. Thus, the new U.S. sanctions further negatively affect Russia, and maybe an add-on strategy for the U.S. to bring Russia on the negotiation table.

What Next?

That Trump will not have on his plater the good news of being able to strike Russia-Ukraine peace deal on the Day One of his second term at White House, is apparent.

But, as the matter is very much a serious agenda for Trump 0.2, and Putin has said he will have no hesitation to talk to Trump on peace deal, the peace deal appears coming, if not immediately, later in the New Year 2025!