Things the Different Nations May Have in Mind as Trump 2.0 Begins on Jan 20

A change in guard in the United States of America is not just an administrative change for the U.S. alone, it implies a change in the world, in terms of international relations, including economy, trade, war, tariff and all that goes into it. And with Trump 2.0, this can be expected to be emphatic, tremors of which can be felt by nations soon after January 20, 2025. As the day nears, nations must already be thinking how to respond to the new world order that will emerge after January 20.

Having a turbulent first term for the world affairs, Republican Donald Trump, more powerful this time than his first term, is entering office on January 20 with a huge inauguration ceremony that has every conscious man on earth keep looking forward to, in order to see how things may unfold soon after.

Russia

Arch rival of the United States that Russia is, the first nation that will have direct bearing upon the entry of Trump on January 20, will be Russia. President Putin is a season leader and has seen many ups and down for his nation as well as his own presidentship.

Trump’s promise of ending Russia-Ukraine war on Day One, isn’t coming and it looks months away. However, Putin may well be waiting for Trump’s final decision, which may be arrived after a hard bargain that he may push through in order to end the war. At present, despite so much of sanctions by the U.S., Russia is not much bogged down economically, though its citizens might not be willing to continue the war any more. The war has already crossed 100 days. So, President Putin might be maintaining a conscious wait and watch, waiting for Mr. Trump to make the first move.

China

China is clearly in a mood to take head-on with the United States on economy in the form of trade war. It is clear from the way Beijing is moving in trade relation expansions, either in Latin American nations or in African nations. China, unlike the United States, has cheap labour, and hence it can stay on at a competitive edge with regard to price.

However, Trump’s promise of huge tariff on imports of Chinese goods into the U.S. leaves China on a tight spot, particularly for its electronic vehicles, on which it has been pegging to lead the global market with.

On January 20, when Trump enters office, President Xi Jinping might start more rigorous study of the U.S. moves on international trade affairs, and even step up on his team that studies and advises him on U.S. affairs. China at present is the second largest economy in the world and its moves in Latin America and Africa has definitely put the U.S. on the spot. As a result of which, Trump has been making his wish global to take control of Panama Canal and resource-rich Greenland.

Thus, for China, second coming of Trump is a much-awaited tough going-ahead, which Xi Jinping might well be readying himself and his nation for.

Iran

Iran is another nation that directly bears the brunt of the U.S. because of its closeness to Russia, and because it stands against U.S. ally Israel. Ahead of Trump 2.0, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian held a meeting in Moscow on Friday to discuss and review ties, including defence collaboration. The two nations plan to sign a strategic partnership agreement. Iran, however, might start getting tougher and making its citizens ready for a tougher next five years given the history of a hardliner Trump vis-à-vis Iran. 

Israel

Israel has, in the past, often described Donald Trump as a ‘good friend’ because of his support to Isarel’s policies in the Middle East. While some U.S. citizens want Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war to end the humanitarian crises in the Middle East, things will all depend what exactly Trump wants Netanyahu to do. For, without the support of Trump, Netanyahu will not think it wise to go solo in the war. In either case, Israel has already changed the balance of power in the Middle-east and more change is not possible. War in the Middle-east is just lingering—which both Trump and Netanyahu, know.

European Union

The ‘America First’policy of Trump will have its direct socio-political and economic impact in Europe. Two important nations—Germany and France are going through tough political and economic situation, and they being the backbone of the Union, may get influenced by the U.S’s “America First” policy and start thinking more about themselves than about the European Union. The outcome of the elections in Germany scheduled in February, will show the way politics unfolds in Europe in future. Britain has pulled itself away from the Union and is struggling hard to revive its economy. China’s trade competition with European Union has made the situation difficult, particularly for France and Germany.

North Korea

North Korea under its leader Kim Jong Un likes to defy the U.S. hegemony in any form. In the first term, Trump had however tried to begin a new relationship with North Korea by initiating a mutual dialogue. The two leaders held a meeting and agreed on several points, particularly denuclearizing the Korean peninsula.

When Trump takes over second time on January 20, North Korean President Kim might just want to wait and see how events unfold, and until then continue to put up the nation’s strong military face.

India

India likes to keep equal-distance from both the U.S. and Russia. Or so to say, likes to maintain self-interest driven ‘good’ relationship with each the U.S. and Russia.

Unlike China, India does not have any trade conflict with the United States. In fact, India has been a huge market for the U.S. corporate houses. On the other hand, Indian trained engineers, scientists and doctors reside in the U.S. in good number. So, change of guard in the U.S. may not affect India in any way. But Trump’s “make America Great Again” catches good imagination with the supporters of right-wing led BJP of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Canada

Trump has expressed his wish to admit Canada as the 51 State of the United State of America. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has resigned from his post and a federal election is scheduled in October next year. Canada leadership might well be planning a joint strategy as to how to deal with upcoming Trump administration.