Road to peace on Russia-Ukraine war is long and winding

The road to peace between Russia-Ukraine appears to be a long and winding one; one that passes through Russia-U.S. diplomacy correction, and shake up of the U.S.-Europe traditional relations before it hits a mineral deal by Ukraine.

Though the peace-building process is moving at a high speed, it would be months before one finds a formal announcement to ending the war which has entered its fourth year and is still on officially.

The War

Russia marked the competition of the third year of the war on February 24, 2025 through a renewed attack upon Ukraine with over 200 drones—signalling that it hasn’t let its mantle down amidst talks of ending the war.

The war has taken huge toll on Ukraine though Russia too has incurred heavy loss, and a large number of sanctions both from the U.S. and Europe which have brought down its economy. Thousands of Ukrainian citizens have died and over six million have been displaced.

However, after U.S. President Donald Trump upended the policy towards Ukraine and declared that he wanted to end the war; and held a telephonic conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine is left with no option but to go by what Trump wants.

The Road to Peace

U.S. President Trump wants to end the war soon, but Russian President Putin sees it slightly differently. He thinks that Russia-U.S. bilateral relations have to improve first and a confidence between the two nation is put in place before the war is formally ended, if the peace has to be lasting.

The United States has imposed a long list of sanctions upon Russia. The U.S. sanctions on Russian energy has bogged down Russia economy. There had been a complete distrust between the U.S. and Russia in the last three years. In fact, the U.S. under Joe Biden administration had been fighting a proxy war with Russia, something which Trump has stopped.

U.S.-Russia meet in Istanbul

The U.S. and Russian team met in Istanbul on Thursday in order to amend their diplomatic relations—first milestone on the road to peace between Russia-Ukraine. Russian President Putin knows well that it is not Ukraine but the U.S. which has been fighting the war with it. So, when Trump held a telephonic conversation with him, he wanted to amend Russia’s relations with the U.S. at the bilateral level first.

However, geopolitics analysts have observed that the U.S. is surrendering its position to Russia by accepting a series of escalating Russian demands; and in the name of ending the war, the “aggressor”, as Russia has been often referred to, is being given a free hand.

The U.S.-Europe relations

Both Trump and his Vice President J.D. Vance have made it clear that the U.S. is changing its Europe policy, and Europe is alarmingly conscious of it. The U.S. is in little mood to continue its security support to Europe. It wants to scale-down the U.S. support to Europe, which in turn threatens a free hegemony of Russia in the region. This policy position makes the U.S. give up its trans-Atlantic European presence in favour of Russia.

What is the U.S. Upto?

Washington under Trump administration has upended the Joe Biden policy and is developing closeness with Moscow. It is a significant departure in the U.S. policy towards Russia, where the U.S. had always wanted to isolate Russia on world politics and trade. How will the U.S. benefit out of the new policy is difficult to fathom at present. But President Trump probably wants to minimize his nations unwanted expenses under security in NATO—and wants to focus on trade and business. The aggressive push of China to become the largest economy of the world is what Trump probably wants to take on immediately, and restraining unwanted expenses is what Trump administration is geared to as internal developments like federal staff sliming-down, USAID termination suggest.

However, one thing is clear. Shifting of U.S. policy towards Russia is going to have a sea impact on Europe, its trade, its economy, not just its security. Already many European nations are worried of the new developments. France President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer have met U.S. President Trump and discussed the issue during the last few days.

Mineral Deal of Ukraine

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenski has agreed the mineral demand of the United States and reportedly a preliminary deal has been drawn up by Ukraine. According to the proposed deal, the two nations envision developing Ukraine’s natural resources including rare earths, critical minerals, oil and gas. Zelenski is expected to meet Trump in Washington to discuss the mineral deal, following which the next phase in the process of peace between Russia-Ukraine will unfold.

Summing, the Russia-Ukraine war appears to not just alter the maps in Ukraine, but threatens to alter the geopolitics.

With the two bitter enemies now cozying up to one another, the world is anxious to learn which way the geopolitics is going to shift, leaving their foes and friends guessing.