Peace—what it takes

Transatlantic global equations are at a crossroad, tensed and uncertain.

Scene 1: Friday’s tensed meeting of Ukraine President Zelenski with U.S. President Donald Trump has made things all the more uncertain, and the relations now may head either way.

Scene 2: Prior to Zelenski’s meet at the Oval Office, France President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met Trump and tried to keep him supporting Europe-Ukraine’s security against an aggressive Russia, apart from discussing bilateral trades. The meeting remained open-ended.

Scene 3:

At the meeting between Ukraine President Zelenski and President Trump, the U.S. felt that Ukraine is being ungrateful for the U.S. aid. After the tensed meeting between the two allies, British Prime Minister Starmer led an emergency meeting of European leaders with Ukraine as the subject vis-à-vis the U.S. support. While some advised Zelenski to restore his relations with Trump, as without the U.S. support, Europe is under threat from Russia. Starmer may mediate between Trump and Zelenski as a ‘go-between’ for restoration of the good relationship.

Scene 4: Trump wants to end war, he does not want to provide support to Ukraine any more, reason being he wants to save the unnecessary flow-out of U.S. wealth so that the U.S. can withstand the Chinese trade and geopolitical aggression.

Scene 5: British Prime Minister thinks that Europe should move swiftly to prepare a peace plan on the war which could be presented to the United States.

Scene 6: While Europe-Ukraine wants to keep Russia globally alienated led by the U.S. in the act, some European leaders like Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban have asked the European Union to start direct discussions with Russia on a ceasefire in Ukraine. His formula is simple: Talk to your enemy straight away and end the war. Afterall, the peace talk on Russia-Ukraine war between the U.S. and Russia does not include Europea-Ukraine.

Scene 7: Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday told Sergei Shoigu, the secretary of Russia's Security Council, in Beijing that China and Russia should strengthen coordination in international affairs. According to reports, Xi also said that China-Russia should maintain close communication in their mutual relations.

The above are some of the latest geopolitical developments that have left analysts guessing on what possibly could unfold eventually.

One thing is clear: that geopolitical relations are set for a change. And though it may not or may be a complete change—possibility of a complete change appears equally high—change in the traditional geopolitics probably has already taken place, and things may not be the same again between the U.S. and Europe. And this will have global ramifications.

What will Europe Do now?

Europe has already started planning to up its own security by increasing its defense spending. While there is a thinking that France and Britain should quickly come up with a peace plan that could be presented before Trump, side by side there also is a plan to raise Europe’s own security by increasing defense budget, and dealing the peace negotiation with Russia on its own.

However, Europe knows well that Russia will not honour a peace deal if it does not have the backing of the United States, and it is therefore that Europe needs the United States in it.

As of now, Europe’s biggest nightmare has come true. The United States has been maintaining that Ukraine “does not have the cards” in the peace negotiation, which means that the U.S. allows Russia an upper hand in the peace deal. The U.S. doesn’t want to spend any more money after it has already spent $340 billion in Russia-Ukraine war, but at the same time does not want to keep away from the war—it wants to end it.

London Meet

After the failed talk between Ukraine President Zelenski and U.S. President Trump, European leaders on Sunday held an emergency meeting in London hosted by British Prime Minister Starmer.

Starmer’s statement that Europe must help itself secure peace not just for Ukraine but for the eventual stability of the continent, is the new line of thinking. If Russia is not contained, and Ukraine is seen as an isolated case, Europe will be at the mercy of Russia.

What if Europe takes charge of Ukraine peace with Russia?

The U.S. has kept Ukraine-Europe out of peace negotiation with Russia. Europe is worried. The latest incident at Washington, has offered Europe an opportunity to pull up their socks and go ahead without the United States.

Europe has placed a lot of sanctions on Russia and Russian economy is reeling under stress due to them.

Will Russia and Europe sit down on a peace negotiation minus the United States—and Russia will honour the move?

It looks unlikely as Russia would like to see fix two problems with a single shot—Europe-Ukraine as well as the United States—with which Russia is too eager to mend its diplomatic relations. Mending the diplomatic relations may help some of U.S. sanctions lifted in future—and Russia will be at a gain in the long run.

For the U.S., it will continue to hold its geopolitical supremacy, which it vigorously guards.