How will the world of German Chancellor in-waiting Friedreich Merz look like?

German Chancellor in-waiting Friedreich Merz has sounded a shift in geopolitics soon after his party Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Socialist Union (CSU) emerged as the largest party in the election.

As the head of the third largest economy of the world, Merz wants an independence from the United States of America as far as the security of Europe is concerned—which he cleared on Monday, before he even formally enters office.

As of now, Europe must have managed to keep up its stated stand in the world vis-à-vis immigration after Alternative for Germany (AfD) came second in the election. Germany has managed to keep its old past at a bay for now.

The far-right AfD was being supported by tech-billionaire Elon Musk of the United States, and even the U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance.

What would be Merz’s policy towards the U.S.?

President Donald Trump of the United States has stated that he would withdraw his nation from NATO. Though law of the U.S. prohibits the President from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without an approval of a two-third Senate majority, President Trump’s declaration has made Europe re-think on its security.

Then, what remains of NATO minus the United States? Only Europe! The German Chancellor in-waiting appeared clear of what his nation would do for Europe’s security in the coming days when he said: "I would never have thought that I would have to say something like this in a TV show but, after Donald Trump's remarks last week... it is clear that this government does not care much about the fate of Europe".

Europe has been wondering what to do next after the public statement of Trump, but Merz’s clear thinking may show the path. However, it is a difficult path, and will require a lot of money.

Merz maintains that his priority would be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible, and “achieve independence” from the United States.

What the Security issue of Europe?

Traditionally, Russia has been the cause of concern for Europe security and this is the reason why European nations, including Germany supported Ukraine hugely in the war against Russia. Europe does not like Russian aggression. Europe has imposed a long list of sanctions on Russia, and Russia so far has managed its economy.

United States of America too, under the leadership of President Joe Biden supported Ukraine hugely. But Trump’s administration maintained that it was unwise to support Ukraine and that the U.S. was no longer going to support Ukraine against Russia in the war.

President Trump wants the peace negotiation to end the Russia-Ukraine war, but Ukraine and Europe are not on the table for peace negotiation.

This has caused flurry of concern in Europe and the continent now re-thinks on its security. Besides, the way the U.S. lately relates bilaterally towards Russia in the peace-deal, which Ukraine and Europe finds a break-away from tradition, is making Europe think that geopolitics is changing.

Trump’s tariff threat upon Europe too has indicated that Europe is no longer on the goodwill of the U.S. and the U.S. means business now.

Amidst these geopolitical developments, Merz appears to be sure that the world is up for a big power politics in the coming days, where Russia would not be Europe’s only enemy.

What will it take Europe to be “Independent” from the U.S.?

France, United Kingdom and Germany are the three big powers of Europe. France and the U.K. are nuclear powers whereas Germany is not. Germany’s economy is on a slow-down, and its military is not so much in place. At present, the massive presence of the U.S. military in Europe is what makes the Europeans feel secured, but this security is on the mercy of the United States.

In the last three years, Germany has offered huge support to Ukraine, next to only the U.S., in the war against Russia and Russia knows it.

Merz’s stand to empower Europe so that it provides for its own security, will require a huge financial investment, and Merz has to turn around the economy of Germany hugely if he plans finance support for security.

Germany will find it difficult to neglect its relations with the U.S. because it has a huge trade surplus with the United States.

Most importantly, Merz will form a coalition government and in all decisions that he takes for his nation with regards to economy and international relations, including Germany’s bilateral relations with the U.S., he will need to take the consensus of his coalition partners.

The issues on which Germany election was fought

The election issues were very clear from the day the coalition government of out-going Chancellor Olaf Scholz fell apart. They included economy, immigration, security and Russia.

Alternative for Germany (AfD), which got 152 seats and 20.8 percent of the vote share coming second to the conservative parties of Merz who got 208 seats and 28.6 per cent, stood for even good bilateral relations with Russia.

So, Russia has been an issue in Germany election!

And as long as Russia is an issue, Washington appears to be continuing to stay in Europe’s internal and global politics.