Geopolitics has changed and is further set to change, probably a tectonic change is on anvil

Geopolitics has changed and is further set to change, probably a tectonic change is on anvil.

Consider the following—

Pointer 1: Trade war has ensued with United States of America on one side and rest like China, Mexico, Canada and a few more nations on the other side.

Pointer 2: United States has withdrawn itself from some U.N. bodies like World Health Organisation, the U.N. Human Rights Council, and UNRWA.

The Executive Order of the U.S. President on February 3, 2025 said:

“Section 1.  Purpose.  The United States helped found the United Nations (UN) after World War II to prevent future global conflicts and promote international peace and security.  But some of the UN’s agencies and bodies have drifted from this mission and instead act contrary to the interests of the United States while attacking our allies and propagating anti-Semitism.  As in 2018, when the United States withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC), the United States will reevaluate our commitment to these institutions…”

Pointer 3: The U.S. also is mulling to leave NATO—North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. The NATO binds the U.S. with Europe, usually against Russia and its allies, since the days of the Cold War. Tech billionaire Elon Musk, U.S. President’s closest ally also has supported President Trump on this idea. Leaving the U.N. and NATO is a part of Trump’s “America First” policy, in which unnecessary outflow of U.S. money is being closely guarded against.

The U.S. also has stopped USAID—a welfare fund by the U.S. usually for the third-world weaker nations.

Pointer 4: The U.S. has stopped military aid to Ukraine, and is holding talks with Russia to end war, and the talks don’t provide seat to Ukraine and Europe. Europe is being alienated; and the U.S. is inching closer to Russia in the process of ending the war against a mineral deal with Ukraine.

Possibilities ahead

Possibility 1: As Europe has been alienated by the U.S. in matters of Ukraine, as well as Europe no longer seeing the continued support of United States for its security and hence thinking of increasing its defense spending, it would not be a surprise if Europe looks towards another super power—China, to form an alliance.

But China is a close ally of Russia and Russia-China would not like to part. Yet, as geopolitics is changing, anything can happen in future.

China is the second largest economy of the world after the United States—at present an ally of Russia.

If the U.S. and Russia become allies—as geopolitical developments are leading to, equations are set to change.

Some analysts even opine that Europe must not waste time in coaxing the U.S. back to its fold, but immediately reach out to China before the mineral deal between the U.S. and Ukraine takes place. It's a gamble and Europe must take it!

In any case, the U.S. has got closer to Russia over Ukraine.

Why China may get interested?

China has for years been waiting and working hard to be the super power of the world, and as U.S. policies has been creating vacuum in geopolitics space like the U.N., China might be too willing to step in and lead from the front, act like a big brother.

China runs the risk of getting delinked from Russia, but if the U.S. and Russia get closer, China will have limited option.

Besides, the U.S. has already imposed tariff on China, and even European economy is being affected by Trump’s tariffs of 25% on aluminium and steel imports from 12 March.   

Withdrawals by the U.S. from many international platforms leaves a vacuum, and China is in waiting. In fact, recent utterances by Chinese senior leaders have sufficiently indicated that China wants to play a bigger role in international politics.

Why Russia may not mind if U.S. wants close ties with it

The U.S. has imposed many sanctions on Russia, and Russian vessels carrying energy are on sanctions. Improvement on bilateral and diplomatic relations will smoothen things for Russia, and it would be for its economic benefit.

As for China becoming an enemy of Russia if Russia gets closer to the U.S., the next war, rather the next World War, is economic one—which has probably already begun.

In fact, a real war with guns, bombs and missiles is just a part of this Economic Warfare. Weapon-war gives push to arms industry, which in turn create job opportunities. So, in reality, real wars too are necessary in this phase of Economic Warfare.

The U.S. tariff impositions have already affected Mexico and Canada apart from China. These two nations will be against the U.S. in normal course of politics. China has developed close trade ties with many Latin American countries, as well as signed agreements with many African countries for mining collaborations.

Nations like India, the fifth largest economy of the world, may have to choose between the two possible blocs. Japan, the third largest economy of the world with a GDP of $4.39 trillion, usually is a U.S. ally for local reasons, particularly due to China.

Europe is at a Crossroad

Europe is being alienated in the recent geopolitical developments. The worst possibility for Europe would be U.S-Russia-forced mineral deal with Ukraine in ending the war, and China joining it later.

Thus, the ball is not just with the United States alone, but Europe too has it. But, for Europe to exercise it, traditions and traditional lines of thinking have to be buried.

In politics, such things are possible, and when it comes to geopolitics of the present day, anything could emerge.

Possibility 2: If Europe reaches out to China on Ukraine peace deal, China’s intervention can ensure a seat for Europe at the peace-deal table.

Summing up, the war between Russia and Ukraine has played a role of a catalyst for change in geopolitics—and the change has already set in. The U.S. and Russia have already made their moves. If Europe decides to gamble, the world is set for the next phase of geopolitics.