A New War?

In the midst of a twin war and a trade war, the United States on Saturday launched a large-scale attack on the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group in Yemen.

What are the stakes for the U.S. and Iran? How is the geopolitics going to unfold in the coming days?

These two questions are prominently popping up after a swirl of smokes went up in the sky upon attacks by the U.S. military in Yemen capital Sanaa beginning Saturday night.

THE BACKGROUND

Twin war is on—one between Israel vs Hamas-Hezbollah, and another between Russia-Ukraine. Both the wars are passing through different phases of peace negotiations. In both the wars, the U.S. is directly or indirectly involved, actively in the peace negotiations.

In the Israel vs Hamas-Hezbollah war, the U.S. is with its traditional ally Israel, and Iran has been backing the Hezbollah. In the recent past last year, there had already been a serious arms exchange between Israel and Iran over the issues.

Coming to the Russia-Ukraine war, the U.S. had supported Ukraine hugely with arms and other military aids during the Joe Biden administration. U.S. President Donald trump wants to end the war and bring peace, and a peace plan has been prepared. While Ukraine maintains that it will accept the U.S.-led ceasefire plan, Russia is in the stage of deliberations over the ceasefire plan.

But in the entire process, Europe has been kept out of the table. Rather, Europe has been alienated in the whole process. Countries like Germany, France, United Kingdom and others have offered massive support, including military support to Ukraine in the war; and after the spat between Ukraine President Volodymir Zelenskiy and U.S. President Trump, the whole of Europe except some nations, today stand by Ukraine.

What actually has made Europe pensive is that they have been kept out of the peace negotiation process in the Russia-Ukraine war, and their traditional ally U.S. has nearly changed course.  

And Trump’s trade war implementing tariff on steel and aluminium has impacted Europe and there is already a verbal exchange between Europe and the United States over the tariffs.

President Trump has been trying to make a shift in the foreign policy of the United States with letting go of the traditional U.S.-Europe alliance, and inching closer to Russia.

In the Middle-east, Iran is a close ally of Russia. And Trump has now attacked Houthi rebels in Yemen, warning Iran in his social media platform Truth Social with the words: "Funded by Iran, the Houthi thugs have fired missiles at US aircraft, and targeted our Troops and Allies", stressing that their "piracy, violence, and terrorism" had cost "billions of dollars" and put lives at risk.

The Trade War:

Trump’s tariffs have caused stir in Canada, Mexico, Europe, China and a few other nations.

For different reasons, different nations are in conflict with the United States.

How will they look at Trumps new front—large-scale attacks on the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and an increased conflict with Iran, to whom Trump wants on the negotiation table over its nuclear programmes?

U.S. Military attack on Houthi rebels

U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social: “Today, I have ordered the United States Military to launch decisive and powerful Military action against the Houthi terrorists in Yemen. They have waged an unrelenting campaign of piracy, violence, and terrorism against Americans, and other, ships, aircrafts and drones…Funded by Iran, the Houthi thugs have fired missiles at U.S. aircraft, and targeted our Troops and Allies. These relentless assaults have cost the U.S. and the World Economy many BILLIONS of Dollars…To all Houthi terrorists, YOUR TIME IS UP…”

To this, Iran has responded: “"We warn our enemies that Iran will respond decisively and destructively if they take their threats into action," Hossein Salami, top commander of Iran Revolutionary Guard stated.

The Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has maintained that the U.S. government has "no authority, or business, dictating Iranian foreign policy." "End support for Israeli genocide and terrorism. Stop killing of Yemeni people," Araqchi took to social media platform X on Sunday to convey Iran’s stand.

Who are the Houthis?

The Houthis are from Yemen's large Shia minority. Iran being predominantly Shia, Houthis have been getting their support from it since long as the Sunnis opponents claim. As there is a traditional Shia-Sunni rivalry, Houthis too are traditional rivals of Saudi Arabia.

Iran has been Yemen's largest neighbour and ally, Yemen being the country of the Houthis.

The Houthis are opposing Israel’s attacks on Gaza Strip, and killing of the people there. In the recent past, they have fired missiles and drones against Israel.  

Why are the Houthis attacking Red Sea ships?

The Houthis are opposing Israel and its allies in the Red Sea too.

In the recent past, the Houthi rebels have launched more than 40 attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, which President Trump is talking about.

Now the question is, how will the U.S. attack on Iran-backed Houthis rebel group impact the geopolitics!

Iran is under acute pressure as Trump wants to bring it to the negotiation table through this attack over its nuclear programme.

In the recent past, Iran has helped Russia with drones and other weapons against Ukraine in the war. How will Russia act? And how will China act?

With the trade war, Canada, Mexico, Europe, China and a few more nations, are sulking. How will they react to the U.S.’s new action? They might want to strike the U.S. economically rather want to extend other support to Iran, which is already under heavy economic sanction of the U.S. and the Europe.

Now that even European alliance is being reviewed by Trump administration, what will Europe do here? Will Europe ease its sanctions against Iran to help it indirectly against the U.S. pressure?

To sum up, the new military action in the world, this time directly by the U.S., that too under a changing geopolitical situation, has raised more questions than answers.

Under the changed circumstances, will Russia go ahead by the U.S.-led peace negotiations in its war against Ukraine?  

The coming days will thus be more interesting to watch out which way geopolitics tilts!